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Paul scheels natural brilliance torrent

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paul scheels natural brilliance torrent

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The objection to buying these issues lies in the probability, or at least the possibility, that earnings will decline or losses continue, and that the resources will be dissipated and the intrinsic value ultimately become less than the price paid. As long as working capital is not overstated and operations are not rapidly consuming cash, a company could liquidate its assets, extinguish all liabilities, and still distribute proceeds in excess of the market price to investors.

Ongoing business losses can, however, quickly erode net-net working capital. Even Buffett—nearly two decades after closing BPL—wrote the following in his letter to Berkshire shareholders:. If you buy a stock at a sufficiently low price, there will usually be some hiccup in the fortunes of the business that gives you a chance to unload at a decent profit, even though the long-term performance of the business may be terrible.

Unless you are a liquidator, that kind of approach to buying businesses is foolish. In a difficult business, no sooner is one problem solved than another surfaces—never is there just one cockroach in the kitchen. Second, any initial advantage you secure will be quickly eroded by the low return that the business earns.

That way, the investor can figure out which net nets are more likely to recover instead of burn through their assets and leave the investor with a low or negative return. There is a wide range of potential outcomes for net nets, and many of those scenarios are good for the investor. In practice, while around 5 percent of net nets may suffer a terminal decline in stock price, a statistical group of net nets has done far better than the market and has experienced fewer down years.

Moreover, as Carlisle notes in Deep Value , very few net nets are actually liquidated or merged. In the vast majority of cases, there is a change by management, a change from the outside, or both, in order to restore earnings to a level more in line with net asset value. Mean reversion. That said, in order to use a deep value strategy, you do have to be able to handle the psychological discomfort of being lonely and looking foolish.

Comfort can be expensive in investing. Put differently, acceptance of discomfort can be rewarding, as equities that cause their owners discomfort frequently trade at exceptionally low valuations…. If we owned nothing but a portfolio of Ben Graham-style bargain equities, we may become quite uncomfortable at times, especially if the market value of the portfolio declined precipitously.

We might look at the portfolio and conclude that every investment could be worth zero. After all, we could have a mediocre business run by mediocre management, with assets that could be squandered. Investing in deep value equities therefore requires faith in the law of large numbers—that historical experience of market-beating returns in deep value stocks and the fact that we own a diversified portfolio will combine to yield a satisfactory result over time.

This conceptually sound view becomes seriously challenged in times of distress…. Playing into the psychological discomfort of Graham-style equities is the tendency of such investments to exhibit strong asset value but inferior earnings or cash flows. In a stressed situation, investors may doubt their investment theses to such an extent that they disregard the objectively appraised asset values.

After all—the reasoning of a scared investor might go—what is an asset really worth if it produces no cash flow? Deep value investors often find some of the best investments in cyclical areas. The question of whether a company has entered permanent decline is anything but easy to answer, as virtually all companies appear to be in permanent decline when they hit a rock-bottom market quotation. As a pessimistic stock price inevitably influences the appraisal objectivity of most investors, it becomes exceedingly difficult to form a view strongly opposed to the prevailing consensus.

Consider the following industries that have been pronounced permanently impaired in the past, only to rebound strongly in subsequent years: Following the financial crisis of , many analysts argued that the banking industry would be permanently negatively affected, as higher capital requirements and regulatory oversight would compress returns on equity.

The credit rating agencies were seen as impaired because the regulators would surely alter the business model of the industry for the worse following the failings of the rating agencies during the subprime mortgage bubble. The homebuilding industry would fail to rebound as strongly as in the past, as overcapacity became chronic and home prices remained tethered to building costs.

The refining industry would suffer permanently lower margins, as those businesses were capital-intensive and driven by volatile commodity prices. Buffett has made it clear, including in his letter to shareholders, that the best returns of his career came from investing in microcap cigar butts. Most of these were mediocre businesses or worse. But they were ridiculously cheap. And, in some cases like Dempster, Buffett was able to bring about needed improvements when required. Even in recent years, Buffett invested part of his personal portfolio in a group of cigar butts he found in South Korea.

Due to years of underinvestment from oil producers, oil supply is constrained. Government policy has also discouraged oil investment. Moreover, due to money printing by central banks plus strong fiscal stimulus, oil demand is strong and increasing. The net result of constrained supply and strong demand is a structural bull market for oil that is likely to last years.

John Maynard Keynes is one of the greatest economists of all time. But when he tried to invest on the basis of macroeconomic predictions, he failed. When he embraced focused value investing, he was wildly successful. It is well known that Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger are two of the greatest value investors, and that they both favor a focused approach. Keynes was born in in the university town of Cambridge, where his father was an economics fellow and his mother was one of its first female graduates.

Forster, Bertrand Russell, and Wittgenstein. The group was based on principles expressed in G. Moore believed the following:. By far the most valuable things, which we know or can imagine, are certain states of consciousness, which may be roughly described as the pleasures of human intercourse and the enjoyment of beautiful objects.

Upon graduation, Keynes decided to become a Civil Servant, and ended up as a junior clerk in the India Office in Keynes was also part of the Bloomsbury group, which included artists, writers, and philosophers who met at the house of Virginia Woolf and her siblings. Walsh quotes a Bloomsbury:. We found ourselves living in the springtime of a conscious revolt against the social, political, moral, intellectual, and artistic institutions, beliefs, and standards of our fathers and grandfathers.

Keynes strongly disagreed with the proposed peace terms following the conclusion of World War I. He wrote The Economic Consequences of the Peace , which was translated into eleven languages. Keynes predicted that the vengeful demands of France and others against their enemies would inevitably lead to another world war far worse than the first one. Unfortunately, Keynes was ignored and his prediction turned out to be roughly correct. After resigning from Treasury, Keynes needed a source of income.

Given his background in economics and government, he decided that he could make money by speculating on currencies and later commodities. His speculative bets on rubber, corn, cotton, and tin declined massively in Eventually he realized that value investing was a much better way to succeed as an investor. Keynes made a clear distinction between speculation and value investing. He described speculation as like the newspaper competitions where one had to pick out the faces that the average would pick as the prettiest:.

We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be. And there are some, I believe, who practice fourth, fifth and higher degrees. Another famous economist, Irving Fisher, who had also done well in business, made his famous prediction in mid-October Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau…. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher… within a few months.

Keynes, on the other hand, was quick to recognize both the deep problems posed by the economic downturn and the necessity for aggressive fiscal policy contrary to the teachings of classical economics. Keynes said:. The fact is — a fact not yet recognized by the great public — that we are now in the depths of a very severe international slump, a slump which will take its place in history amongst the most acute ever experienced.

It will require not merely passive movements of bank rates to lift us out of a depression of this order, but a very active and determined policy. Keynes argued that the economy was at an underemployment equilibrium, with a large amount of wasted resources.

Only aggressive fiscal policy could increase aggregate demand, thereby bringing the economy back to a healthy equilibrium. Classical economists at the time — who disagreed forcefully with Keynes — thought that the economy was like a household: when income declines, one must spend less until the situation corrects itself. Franklin Delano Roosevelt seemed to agree with Keynes. In The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money , Keynes disagreed with the conventional doctrine that free markets always produce optimal results.

Keynes held that there is an irreducible uncertainty regarding most of the future. Because the future is so uncertain, many investors extrapolate the recent past into the future, which often causes them to make investment mistakes.

Moreover, many investors overweight the near term, leading to stock price volatility far in excess of the long-term earnings and dividends produced by the underlying companies. Keynes remarked:. Day-to-day fluctuations in the profits of existing investments, which are obviously of an ephemeral and non-significant character, tend to have an altogether excessive, and even an absurd, influence on the market.

Keynes lamented the largely random daily price fluctuations upon which so many investors uselessly focus. Of these fluctuating daily prices, Keynes said that they gave:. It is as though a farmer, having tapped his barometer after breakfast, could decide to remove his capital from the farming business between 10 and 11 in the morning and reconsider whether he should return to it later in the week. Warren Buffett has often quoted this statement by Keynes.

Indeed, in discussing speculators as opposed to long-term value investors, Keynes sounds a lot like Ben Graham and Warren Buffett. It might have been supposed that competition between expert professionals, possessing judgment and knowledge beyond that of the average private investor, would correct the vagaries of the ignorant individual left to himself. It happens, however, that the energies and skill of the professional investor and speculator are mainly occupied otherwise.

For most of these persons are, in fact, largely concerned, not with making superior long-term forecasts of the probable yield of an investment over its whole life, but with foreseeing changes in the conventional basis of valuation a short time ahead of the general public. For it is in the essence of his behavior that he should be eccentric, unconventional and rash in the eyes of average opinion.

If he is successful, that will only confirm the general belief in his rashness; and if in the short run he is unsuccessful, which is very likely, he will not receive much mercy. Because many fund managers are judged over shorter periods of time — even a few months — they typically worry more about not underperforming than they do about outperforming. The stock market can often underreact to positive information.

In a nutshell, investor psychology can cause a stock to be priced almost anywhere in the short term, regardless of the intrinsic value of the underlying company. Keynes held that value investors should usually simply ignore these random fluctuations and stay focused on the individual businesses in which they have invested.

Basically, price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal. At other times he will do better if he forgets about the stock market and pays attention to his dividend returns and to the operating results of his companies. The market is fond of making mountains out of molehills and exaggerating ordinary vicissitudes into major setbacks.

Even a mere lack of interest or enthusiasm may impel a price decline to absurdly low levels. Thus we have what appear to be two major sources of undervaluation: 1 currently disappointing results and 2 protracted neglect or unpopularity. Fear is the foe of the faddist, but the friend of the fundamentalist. Keynes realized that a lower price paid relative to intrinsic value simultaneously reduces risk and increases probable profit.

The notion that a larger margin of safety means larger profits in general is directly opposed to what is still taught in modern finance: higher investment returns are only achievable through higher risk. Moreover, Keynes emphasized the importance of non-quantitative factors relevant to investing. Keynes is similar to Graham, Buffett, and Munger in this regard. The value investor often gains an advantage by having a 3- to 5-year investment time horizon. Because the future is always uncertain, and because so many investors are focused on the next 6 months, numerous bargains become available for long-term investors.

As Keynes mentioned:. Very few American investors buy any stock for the sake of something which is going to happen more than six months hence, even though its probability is exceedingly high; and it is out of taking advantage of this psychological peculiarity that most money is made. Pessimism also creates bargains. During the bear market, many stocks became ridiculously cheap relative to asset value or earnings power.

Buffett has explained the case of The Washington Post Company:. It is generally a good rule for an investor, having settled on the class of security he prefers — … bank shares or oil shares, or investment trusts, or industrials, or debentures, preferred or ordinary, whatever it may be — to buy only the best within that category.

Buffett, partly through the influence of Charlie Munger, evolved from an investor in quantitatively cheap stocks to an investor in higher quality companies. Munger explains the logic:. This is similar to Buffett and Munger especially when they were managing smaller amounts of money. Keynes was criticized for taking large positions in his best ideas.

Here is one of his responses:. Sorry to have gone too large in Elder Dempster… I was… suffering from my chronic delusion that one good share is safer than ten bad ones, and I am always forgetting that hardly anyone else shares this particular delusion. If you can understand specific businesses — which is easier to do if you focus on tiny microcap companies — Keynes, Buffett, and Munger all believed that you should take large positions in your best ideas.

One way that the best ideas of Keynes, Buffett, and Munger become even larger positions in their portfolios over time is if the investment theses are essentially correct, which eventually leads the stocks to move much higher. To suggest that this investor should sell off portions of his most successful investments simply because they have come to dominate his portfolio is akin to suggesting that the Bulls trade Michael Jordan because he has become so important to the team.

The decision about whether to hold a stock should depend only upon your current investment thesis about the company. What matters is how much free cash flow you think the company will produce over time, and how cheap the stock is now relative to that future free cash flow. What also matters is how cheap the stock is relative to your other ideas. As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes.

Conducting research on a relatively short list of candidates and then concentrating your portfolio on the best ideas, is a form of specialization. Often the stocks in a specific sector will get very cheap when that sector is out of favor. Ben Graham often pointed out that patience and courage are essential for contrarian value investing. Cheap stocks are usually neglected or hated because they have terrible short-term problems affecting their earnings and cash flows.

Similarly, Keynes held that huge short-term price fluctuations are often irrational with respect to long-term earnings and dividends. Keynes realized that focused value investing is the best way to compound wealth over time. Ignore market and macro predictions, and focus on a few businesses that you can understand and in whose management you believe. The importance of temperament and the ability to maintain inner peace should not be overlooked.

As Buffett points out:. Investing is not a game where the guy with the IQ beats the guy with the IQ… Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing. Keynes made this mistake because he was an optimist. Here is Keynes sounding like Buffett on the future:. There is nothing to be afraid of. On the contrary. The future holds in store for us far more wealth and economic freedom and possibilities of personal life than the past has ever offered.

According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis EMH , stock prices reflect all available information and are thus fairly valued. However, Warren Buffett, arguably the greatest investor of all time and a value investor, has argued that he knows a group of value investors, all of whom have done better than the market over time. Rather, he identified them ahead of time. The only thing these investors had in common was that they believed in the value investing framework, according to which sometimes the price of a stock can be far below the intrinsic value of the business in question.

Buffett presented his argument in But the logic still holds today. These academics therefore argue that investors such as Warren Buffett just got lucky. Buffett first says to imagine a national coin-flipping contest. If they call correctly, they win a dollar from those who called incorrectly. Each day the losers drop out. And the winners bet again the following morning, putting cumulative winnings on the line.

After ten straight days, there will be approximately , Americans who correctly called ten coin tosses in a row. Now this group will probably start getting a little puffed up about this, human nature being what it is. They may try to be modest, but at cocktail parties they will occasionally admit to attractive members of the opposite sex what their technique is, and what marvelous insights they bring to the field of flipping. After another ten days of this daily contest, there will be approximately flippers left who correctly called twenty coin tosses in a row.

By then, this group will really lose their heads. By then some business school professor will probably be rude enough to bring up the fact that if million orangutans had engaged in a similar exercise, the results would be much the same — egotistical orangutans with 20 straight winning flips.

I would argue, however, that there are some important differences in the examples I am going to present. For one thing, if a you had taken million orangutans distributed roughly as the U. That is, if you found any really extraordinary concentrations of success, you might want to see if you could identify concentrations of unusual characteristics that might be causal factors.

Scientific inquiry naturally follows such a pattern. If you were trying to analyze possible causes of a rare type of cancer — with, say, 1, cases a year in the United States — and you found that of them occurred in some little mining town in Montana, you would get very interested in the water there, or the occupation of those afflicted, or other variables.

You would not necessarily know the causal factors, but you would know where to search. I submit to you that there are ways of defining an origin other than geography. In addition to geographical origins, there can be what I call an intellectual origin. I think you will find that a disproportionate number of successful coin-flippers in the investment world came from a very small intellectual village that could be called Graham-and-Doddsville.

A concentration of winners that simply cannot be explained by chance can be traced to this particular intellectual village. In this group of successful investors that I want to consider, there has been a common intellectual patriarch, Ben Graham. They have gone to different places and bought and sold different stocks and companies, yet they have had a combined record that simply cannot be explained by random chance…. These are not subjects of any interest to them. In fact, most of them would have difficulty defining those terms.

The investors simply focus on two variables: price and value. The Efficient Market Hypothesis argues that the current value of any stock is already reflected in the price. Value investors believe that stock prices are usually correct — the market is usually efficient — but not always. I always find it extraordinary that so many studies are made of price and volume behavior, the stuff of chartists.

Can you imagine buying an entire business simply because the price of the business had been marked up substantially last week and the week before? Of course, the reason a lot of studies are made of these price and volume variables is that now, in the age of computers, there are almost endless data available about them. Once these skills are acquired, it seems sinful not to use them, even if the usage has no utility or negative utility. As a friend said, to a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

Buffett then proceeds to discuss the group of value investors that he had selected decades before Why is it that the value investors whom Buffett had identified decades ago before ended up far outperforming the market? The one thing they had in common was that they distinguished between price and value, and they only bought when price was far below value. Other than that, these investors had very little in common. They bought very different stocks from one another and they also had different methods of portfolio construction, with some like Charlie Munger having very concentrated portfolios and others like Walter Schloss having very diversified portfolios.

Perlmeter does not own what Walter Schloss owns. He does not own what Bill Ruane owns. These are records made independently. I selected these men years ago based upon their framework for investment decision-making. I knew what they had been taught and additionally I had some personal knowledge of their intellect, character, and temperament.

While they differ greatly in style, these investors are, mentally, always buying the business, not buying the stock. A few of them sometimes buy whole businesses far more often they simply buy small pieces of businesses. Their attitude, whether buying all or a tiny piece of a business, is the same. Some of them hold portfolios with dozens of stocks; others concentrate on a handful.

But all exploit the difference between the market price of a business and its intrinsic value. These Graham-and-Doddsville investors have successfully exploited gaps between price and value. In fact, market prices are frequently nonsensical. Buffett then discusses risk versus reward. When you are practicing value investing, the lower the price is relative to probable intrinsic value, the less risk there is but simultaneously the greater upside there is.

The company owned the Post , Newsweek , plus several television stations in major markets. And to people that think beta measures risk, the cheaper price would have made it look riskier. This is truly Alice in Wonderland. Buffett adds that you also want to be sure that the managers of the business are reasonably competent. But this is a very doable task. Buffett concludes his essay by saying that people may wonder why he is writing it in the first place, given that it may create more competitors using value investing.

Buffett observes that the secret has been out since , when Ben Graham and David Dodd published Security Analysis , and yet there has been no trend towards value investing. To boost our productivity—including our ability to think and make decisions—nothing beats continuous learning.

Broad study makes us better people. Michael Mauboussin is a leading expert in the multidisciplinary study of businesses and markets. Individual decisions can be badly thought through, and yet be successful, or exceedingly well thought through, but be unsuccessful, because the recognized possibility of failure in fact occurs. But over time, more thoughtful decision-making will lead to better overall results, and more thoughtful decision-making can be encouraged by evaluating decisions on how well they were made rather than on outcome.

Robert Rubin made this remark in his Harvard Commencement Address in Mauboussin points out that the best long-term performers in any probabilistic field—such as investing, bridge, sports-team management, and pari-mutuel betting—all emphasize process over outcome. Mauboussin quotes horse-race handicapper Steven Crist:. The issue is not which horse in the race is the most likely winner, but which horse or horses are offering odds that exceed their actual chances of victory… This may sound elementary, and many players may think that they are following this principle, but few actually do.

Under this mindset, everything but the odds fades from view. They do. But judging solely on results is a serious deterrent to taking risks that may be necessary to making the right decision. Simply put, the way decisions are evaluated affects the way decisions are made. So how should we think about risk and uncertainty? So games of chance like roulette or blackjack are risky, while the outcome of a war is uncertain. Knight said that objective probability is the basis for risk, while subjective probability underlies uncertainty.

Mauboussin highlights three ways to get a probability, as suggested by Gerd Gigerenzer in Calculated Risks :. When investing in a stock, we try to figure out the expected value by delineating possible scenarios along with a probability for each scenario. This is the essence of what top value investors like Warren Buffett strive to do. In , Lars Edenbrandt, a Lund University researcher, set up a contest between an expert cardiologist and a computer. The task was to sort a large number of electrocardiograms EKGs into two piles—heart attack and no heart attack.

The human expert was Dr. Edenbrandt, an artificial intelligence expert, trained his computer by feeding it thousands of EKGs. Mauboussin describes:. Edenbrandt chose a sample of over 10, EKGs, exactly half of which showed confirmed heart attacks, and gave them to machine and man.

Ohlin took his time evaluating the charts, spending a week carefully separating the stack into heart-attack and no-heart-attack piles. The battle was reminiscent of Garry Kasparov versus Deep Blue, and Ohlin was fully aware of the stakes.

As Edenbrandt tallied the results, a clear-cut winner emerged: the computer correctly identified the heart attacks in 66 percent of the cases, Ohlin only in 55 percent. The computer proved 20 percent more accurate than a leading cardiologist in a routine task that can mean the difference between life and death.

For rules-based systems with limited degrees of freedom, computers consistently outperform individual humans; humans perform well, but computers are better and often cheaper, says Mauboussin. Humans underperform computers because humans are influenced by suggestion, recent experience, and how information is framed.

Also, humans fail to weigh variables well. Thus, while experts tend to agree in this domain, computers outperform experts, as illustrated by the EKG-reading example. In the next domain—rules-based systems with high degrees of freedom—experts tend to add the most value. However, as computing power continues to increase, eventually computers will outperform experts even here, as illustrated by Chess and Go.

In probabilistic domains with limited degrees of freedom, experts are equal to or worse than collectives. Overall, the value of experts declines compared to rules-based domains. In probabilistic domains with high degrees of freedom, experts do worse than collectives. For instance, stock market prices aggregate many guesses from individual investors.

Stock market prices typically are more accurate than experts. Sports fans and athletes believe in the hot hand in basketball. However, statistical analysis of streaks shows that the hot hand does not exist. Long success streaks happen to the most skillful players in basketball, baseball, and other sports. To illustrate this, Mauboussin asks us to consider two basketball players, Sally Swish and Allen Airball. Sally makes 60 percent of her shot attempts, while Allen only makes 30 percent of his shot attempts.

What are the probabilities that Sally and Allen make five shots in a row? For Sally, the likelihood is 0. Sally will hit five in a row about every thirteen sequences. For Allen, the likelihood is 0. Allen will hit five straight once every sequences. Sally will have far more streaks than Allen. In sum, long streaks in sports or in money management indicate extraordinary luck imposed on great skill.

For the average stock, the chance that it will be higher is almost percent for one decade, 72 percent for one year, 56 percent for one month, and 51 percent for one day. The problem is loss aversion. We feel the pain of a loss 2 to 2.

So checking stock prices daily is a losing proposition. By contrast, if we only check the price once a year or once every few years, then investing in a stock is much more attractive. A fund with a high turnover ratio is much more short-term oriented than a fund with a low turnover ratio. Unfortunately, most institutional investors have a much shorter time horizon than what is needed for the typical good strategy to pay off. If portfolio managers lag over shorter periods of time, they may lose their jobs even if their strategy works quite well over the long term.

A consistent thirst to learn marks a great leader. On one level, this is about intellectual curiosity—a constant desire to build mental models that can help in decision making. A quality manager can absorb and weigh contradictory ideas and information as well as think probabilistically…. In almost all organizations, there is much more information at the edge of the network—the employees in the trenches dealing with the day-to-day issues—than in the middle of the network, where the CEO sits.

CEOs who surround themselves with managers seeking to please, rather than prod, are unlikely to make great decisions. A final dimension of learning is creating an environment where everyone in the organization feels they can voice their thoughts and opinions without the risk of being rebuffed, ignored, or humiliated.

The idea here is not that management should entertain all half-baked ideas but rather that management should encourage and reward intellectual risk taking. Teaching involves communicating a clear vision to the organization. Mauboussin points out that teaching comes most naturally to those leaders who are passionate.

Passion is a key driver of success. Self-awareness implies a balance between confidence and humility. We all have strengths and weaknesses. Self-aware leaders know their weaknesses and find colleagues who are strong in those areas. Finally, capital allocation is a vital leadership skill. Regrettably, many consultants and investment bankers give poor advice on this topic.

Most acquisitions destroy value for the acquirer, regardless of whether they are guided by professional advice. The heads of many companies are not skilled in capital allocation. Their inadequacy is not surprising. Most bosses rise to the top because they have excelled in an area such as marketing, production, engineering, administration or, sometimes, institutional politics.

Once they become CEOs, they face new responsibilities. They now must make capital allocation decisions, a critical job that they may have never tackled and that is not easily mastered. CEOs who recognize their lack of capital-allocation skills which not all do will often try to compensate by turning to their staffs, management consultants, or investment bankers.

In the end, plenty of unintelligent capital allocation takes place in corporate America. The psychologist Robert Cialdini, in his book Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion , mentions six psychological tendencies that cause people to comply with requests:. These innate psychological tendencies are especially powerful when they operate in combination.

Charlie Munger calls this lollapalooza effects. Mauboussin writes that investors are often influenced by commitment and consistency, social validation, and scarcity. Psychologists discovered that after bettors at a racetrack put down their money, they are more confident in the prospects of their horses winning than immediately before they placed their bets. After making a decision, we feel both internal and external pressure to remain consistent to that view even if subsequent evidence questions the validity of the initial decision.

So an investor who has taken a position in a particular stock, recommended it publicly, or encouraged colleagues to participate, will feel the need to stick with the call. Related to this tendency is the confirmation trap: postdecision openness to confirming data coupled with disavowal or denial of disconfirming data. One useful technique to mitigate consistency is to think about the world in ranges of values with associated probabilities instead of as a series of single points.

Acknowledging multiple scenarios provides psychological shelter to change views when appropriate. There is a large body of work about the role of social validation in investing. Investing is an inherently social activity, and investors periodically act in concert….

Finally, scarcity has an important role in investing and certainly plays a large role in the minds of corporate executives. Investors in particular seek informational scarcity. The challenge is to distinguish between what is truly scarce information and what is not.

One means to do this is to reverse-engineer market expectations—in other words, figure out what the market already thinks. Humans need to be able to experience emotions in order to make good decisions. Mauboussin writes about an experiment conducted by Antonio Damasio:. As the subjects turned cards, Damasio asked them what they thought was going on. After about ten turns, the subjects started showing physical reactions when they reached for a losing deck.

About fifty cards into the experiment, the subjects articulated a hunch that two of the four decks were riskier. And it took another thirty cards for the subjects to explain why their hunch was right. This experiment provided two remarkable decision-making lessons. First, the unconscious knew what was going on before the conscious did. Second, even the subjects who never articulated what was going on had unconscious physical reactions that guided their decisions.

Individual behavior dwells on the fact that we all consistently fall into psychological traps, including overconfidence, anchoring and adjustment, improper framing, irrational commitment escalation, and the confirmation trap. Sufficient investor diversity is the essential feature in efficient price formation. Provided the decision rules of investors are diverse—even if they are suboptimal—errors tend to cancel out and markets arrive at appropriate prices.

Similarly, if these decision rules lose diversity, markets become fragile and susceptible to inefficiency. In case after case, the collective outperforms the individual. A full ecology of investors is generally sufficient to assure that there is no systematic way to beat the market. Diversity is the default assumption, and diversity breakdowns are the notable and potentially profitable exceptions.

Mauboussin writes about an interesting example of how the collective can outperform individuals including experts. On January 17, , a B bomber and a refueling plane collided in midair while crossing the Spanish coastline. The bomber was carrying four nuclear bombs. Three were immediately recovered. But the fourth was lost and its recovery became a national security priority. Craven assembled a diverse group of experts and asked them to place bets on where the bomb was.

Shortly thereafter, using the probabilities that resulted from all the bets, the bomb was located. The collective intelligence in this example was superior to the intelligence of any individual expert. We all suffer from hindsight bias.

We are unable to recall what we actually thought before making a decision or judgment. As Mauboussin notes, keeping a decision journal gives us a valuable source of objective feedback. Robert Olsen has singled out five conditions that are present in the context of naturalistic decision making.

Mauboussin describes three key characteristics of naturalistic decision makers. First, they rely heavily on mental imagery and simulation in order to assess a situation and possible alternatives. Second, they excel at pattern matching. For instance, chess masters can glance at a board and quickly recognize a pattern. Third, naturalistic decision makers reason through analogy. They can see how seemingly different situations are in fact similar.

Our degree of belief in a particular hypothesis typically integrates two kinds of evidence: the strength, or extremeness, of the evidence and the weight, or predictive validity. For instance, say you want to test the hypothesis that a coin in biased in favor of heads.

The proportion of heads in the sample reflects the strength, while the sample size determines the weight. Probability theory describes rules for how to combine strength and weight correctly. But substantial experimental data show that people do not follow the theory. This bias leads to a distinctive pattern of over- and underconfidence. When the strength of evidence is high and the weight is low—which accurately describes the outcome of many Wall Street-sponsored surveys—people tend to be overconfident.

In contrast, when the strength is low and the evidence is high, people tend to be underconfident. Does survey-based research lead to superior stock selection? Mauboussin responds that the answer is ambiguous. First, the market adjusts to new information rapidly. The second issue is that understanding the fundamentals about a company or industry is very different from understanding the expectations built into a stock price. The question is not just whether the information is new to you, but whether the information is also new to the market.

In the vast majority of cases, the information is already reflected in the current stock price. Seeking new information is a worthy goal for an investor. All innovations represent some break from the past—the lightbulb replaced the gas lamp, the automobile replaced the horse and cart, the steamship replaced the sailing ship. Investors need to appreciate the innovation process for a couple of reasons. First, our overall level of material well-being relies heavily on innovation.

Second, innovation lies at the root of creative destruction—the process by which new technologies and businesses supersede others. More rapid innovation means more rapid success and failure for companies. Mauboussin draws attention to three interrelated factors that continue to drive innovation at an accelerating rate:. Mauboussin mentions the common fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster , which geneticists and other scientists like to study because its life cycle is only two weeks.

Why should businesspeople care about Drosophila? A sound body of evidence now suggests that the average speed of evolution is accelerating in the business world. Just as scientists have learned a great deal about evolutionary change from fruit flies, investors can benefit from understanding the sources and implications of accelerated business evolution. The most direct consequence of more rapid business evolution is that the time an average company can sustain a competitive advantage—that is, generate an economic return in excess of its cost of capital—is shorter than it was in the past.

This trend has potentially important implications for investors in areas such as valuation, portfolio turnover, and diversification. Mauboussin refers to research by Robert Wiggins and Timothy Ruefli on the sustainability of economic returns. They put forth four hypotheses. The first three were supported by the data, while the fourth one was not:.

Mauboussin points out that faster product and process life cycles means that historical multiples are less useful for comparison. Also, the terminal valuation in discounted cash-flow models in many cases has to be adjusted to reflect shorter periods of sustainable competitive advantage. Furthermore, while portfolio turnover on average is too high, portfolio turnover could be increased for those investors who have historically had a portfolio turnover of 20 percent implying a holding period of 5 years.

Similarly, shorter periods of competitive advantage imply that some portfolios should be more diversified. Lastly, faster business evolution means that investors must spend more time understanding the dynamics of organizational change. Mauboussin argues that companies should adopt simple, flexible long-term decision rules. Moreover, simple decision rules help us to be consistent. Otherwise we will often reach different conclusions from the same data based on moods, suggestion, recency bias, availability bias, framing effects, etc.

What does a fitness landscape look like? Envision a large grid, with each point representing a different strategy that a species or a company can pursue. Further imagine that the height of each point depicts fitness. Peaks represent high fitness, and valleys represent low fitness. Each company operates in a landscape full of high-return peaks and value-destructive valleys. The topology of the landscape depends on the industry characteristics. As Darwin noted, improving fitness is not about strength or smarts, but rather about becoming more and more suited to your environment—in a word, adaptability.

In nature, recombination and mutation generate species diversity, and natural selection assures that the most suitable options survive. For companies, adaptability is about formulating and executing value-creating strategies with a goal of generating the highest possible long-term returns. Since a fitness landscape can have lots of peaks and valleys, even if a species reaches a peak a local optimum , it may not be at the highest peak a global optimum.

To get a higher altitude, a species may have to reduce its fitness in the near term to improve its fitness in the long term. We can say the same about companies…. Mauboussin indicates that innovation, deregulation, and globalization are probably causing the global fitness landscape to become even more contorted. Companies can make short, incremental jumps towards a local maximum. Or they can make long, discontinuous jumps that may lead to a higher peak or a lower valley.

Long jumps include investing in new potential products or making meaningful acquisitions in unrelated fields. Mauboussin adds that the financial tool for valuing a given business depends on the fitness landscape that the business is in. A business in a stable landscape can be valued using discounted cash-flow DCF. A business in a course landscape can be valued using DCF plus strategic options. A business in a roiling landscape can be valued using strategic options.

For past averages to be meaningful, the data being averaged have to be drawn from the same population. If this is not the case—if the data come from populations that are different—the data are said to be nonstationary. When data are nonstationary, projecting past averages typically produces nonsensical results. Nonstationarity is a key concept in time-series analysis, such as the study of past data in business and finance. Higher taxes mean lower multiples, all else equal.

And higher inflation also means lower multiples. The more companies rely on intangible capital rather than tangible capital, the higher the cash-flow-to-net-income ratio. Overall, the economy is relying increasingly on intangible capital. Growth alone does not create value. Growth creates value only if the return on invested capital exceeds the cost of capital. Growth actually destroys value if the return on invested capital is less than the cost of capital.

High returns bring competition and new capital, which drives the return on capital toward the cost of capital. Similarly, capital exits low-return industries, which lifts the return on capital toward the cost of capital. Mauboussin reminds us that a good business is not necessarily a good investment, just as a bad business is not necessarily a bad investment. What matters is the expectations embedded in the current price.

If expectations are overly low for a bad business, it can represent a good investment. If expectations are too high for a good business, it may be a poor investment. And some expensive-looking stocks trading at high multiples may still be good investments if high growth and high return on capital can persist long enough into the future. So if your competitor deviates one time and then cooperates, you deviate one time and then cooperate.

Tit-for-tat is both the simplest strategy and also the most effective. When it comes to market pricing and capacity decisions, competitive markets need not be zero sum. A tit-for-tat strategy is often optimal, and by definition it includes a policing component if your competitor deviates.

Speculative markets are decentralized and relatively egalitarian, and can offer direct, concise, timely, and precise estimates in answer to questions we pose. What makes the behavior of social insects like bees and ants so amazing is that there is no central authority, no one directing traffic. Yet the aggregation of simple individuals generates complex, adaptive, and robust results. Colonies forage efficiently, have life cycles, and change behavior as circumstances warrant. These decentralized individuals collectively solve very hard problems, and they do it in a way that is very counterintuitive to the human predilection to command-and-control solutions.

Why do decision markets work so well? First, individuals in these markets think they have some edge, so they self-select to participate. Second, traders have an incentive to be right—they can take money from less insightful traders. Third, these markets provide continuous, real-time forecasts—a valuable form of feedback. The result is that decision markets aggregate information across traders, allowing them to solve hard problems more effectively than any individual can.

Victorian polymath Francis Galton was one of the first to thoroughly document this group-aggregation ability. He collected participants who each paid a sixpenny fee to participate. A small cost to deter practical joking. According to Galton, some of the competitors were butchers and farmers, likely expert at guessing the weight.

Galton calculated the median estimate—the vox populi—as well as the mean. He found that the median guess was within 0. To give a sense of how the answer emerged, Galton showed the full distribution of answers. Simply stated, the errors cancel out and the result is distilled information. Subsequently, we have seen the vox populi results replicated over and over. Examples include solving a complicated maze, guessing the number of jellybeans in a jar, and finding missing bombs.

In each case, the necessary conditions for information aggregation to work include an aggregation mechanism, an incentive to answer correctly, and group heterogeneity. Complex adaptive systems exhibit a number of essential properties and mechanisms, writes Mauboussin:. Governments, many corporations, and capital markets are all examples of complex adaptive systems. Humans have a strong drive to invent a cause for every effect. This has been biologically advantageous for the vast majority of human history.

In the past, if we heard a rustling in the grass, we immediately sought safety. There was always some cause for the noise. It virtually never made sense to wait around to see if it was a predator or not. However, in complex adaptive systems like the stock market, typically there is no simple cause and effect relationship that explains what happens. For many big moves in the stock market, there is no identifiable cause. But people have such a strong need identify a cause that they make up causes.

The press delivers to people what they want: explanations for big moves in the stock market. Usually these explanations are simply made up. Mauboussin, following Charlie Munger, argues that cross-disciplinary research is likely to produce the deepest insights into the workings of companies and markets. Here are some examples:. Through this book, value investors can improve their understanding of how to identify CEOs who maximize long-term returns to shareholders.

Also, investors can become better businesspeople, while businesspeople can become better investors. I am a better investor because I am a businessman and a better businessman because I am an investor. Thorndike notes that 20 percent returns is one thing during a huge bull market—like to Moreover, many industries will go out of favor periodically. Also, he emphasized cash flow over earnings. He never split the stock. He almost never spoke with analysts or journalists. And he ran a radically decentralized organization.

Remarkably, Singleton outperformed the index by over twelve times. Thorndike writes:. Basically, CEOs have five essential choices for deploying capital—investing in existing operations, acquiring other businesses, issuing dividends, paying down debt, or repurchasing stock—and three alternatives for raising it—tapping internal cash flow, issuing debt, or raising equity. Think of these options collectively as a tool kit.

Over the long term, returns for shareholders will be determined largely by the decisions a CEO makes in choosing which tools to use and which to avoid among these various options. Stated simply, two companies with identical operating results and different approaches to allocating capital will derive two very different long-term outcomes for shareholders.

Warren Buffett has noted that most CEOs reach the top due to their skill in marketing, production, engineering, administration, or even institutional politics. Thus most CEOs have not been prepared to allocate capital. Thorndike also points out that the outsider CEOs were iconoclastic, independent thinkers.

But the outsider CEOs, while differing noticeably from industry norms, ended up being similar to one another. Thorndike says that the outsider CEOs understood the following principles:. And, writes Thorndike, they did not attract or seek the spotlight:. As a group, they shared old-fashioned, premodern values including frugality, humility, independence, and an unusual combination of conservatism and boldness.

They typically worked out of bare-bones offices of which they were inordinately proud , generally eschewed perks such as corporate plans, avoided the spotlight wherever possible, and rarely communicated with Wall Street or the business press. They also actively avoided bankers and other advisers, preferring their own counsel and that of a select group around them. Ben Franklin would have liked these guys. Like Singleton, these CEOs consistently made very different decisions than their peers did.

They were not, however, blindly contrarian. Theirs was an intelligent iconoclasm informed by careful analysis and often expressed in unusual financial metrics that were distinctly different from industry or Wall Street conventions. Beane had discovered new — and unorthodox — metrics that were more correlated with team winning percentage.

Thorndike mentions a famous essay about Leo Tolstoy written by Isaiah Berlin. Thorndike continues:. Foxes… also have many attractive qualities, including an ability to make connections across fields and to innovate, and the CEOs in this book were definite foxes. They had familiarity with other companies and industries and disciplines, and this ranginess translated into new perspectives, which in turn helped them to develop new approaches that eventually translated into exceptional results.

And the rowboat won decisively! Bill Paley, who ran CBS, used the enormous cash flow from its network and broadcast operations and undertook an aggressive acquisition program of companies in entirely unrelated fields. Without a sufficiently high ROIC, growth destroys shareholder value instead of creating it. But, like Paley, many business leaders at the time sought growth for its own sake. Even if growth destroys value due to low ROIC , it does make the business larger, bringing greater benefits to the executives.

This meant maximizing profitability and ROIC:. Burke excelled in operations, while Murphy excelled in making acquisitions. Together, they were a great team—unmatched, according to Warren Buffett. During the mids, there was an extended bear market. Thorndike comments:. Mojibake is an open source text editor developed in Java SE 6, featuring a rich set of features and tools to help users edit, inspect, and translate text documents, spreadsheets, drawings, and more. Built on J. Several plant sterols, e.

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Whether you're a Mac user that just acquired a new Mac computer or you've had a Mac computer for. Sage Sage is a native object-oriented OO platform that includes many applications and a number of objects that are factory-driven by internal configuration files.

Many of these objects tie into a repository of multi-object documents called a resource container. You have successfully installed Crossword Creator Pro 4. It is completley free. Need help? E-mail us or post your questions on our support forum. The important is to help yourself by registering us. Bookbind also makes it easy to add support for other book formats, not just using postscript, thereby making the most of whatever the printing system is capable of. The multitude of a number of functions available makes a really flexible tool.

Rating: 4. Do you know even of another tool to collect all your images into one place? Well, with this application, you won't have to do anything different to save the images you want to download. With that said, the utility gives you the opportunity to create presentations based on other files and items and is available for free. Hamezar Media is known for the WatchDance video editing software. It used to be a private solution limited to certain groups who can either pay for the privilege or get help from Hamezar.

Now, you can obtain a direct access to the program. There are no portability issues while running the Windows application since the minimum system requirements are met. Version 16 carries further enhancements allowing easy copying and pasting of text elements between slides, adjusting point sizes, fitting images to the screen and editing text objects. Customizing the calendar is also easier as users can now set the default time and title text as well as the color and size of each step of the months.

It provides an ability to track the changes of recipes, reviewed every 30 days. The program includes a special section in which you can create customized menus. Also, the report gives you an option to compare the day's meals and snack with the proposed meal plan every day.

The app can save your frequently used meals, track snacks added to your personal diary, and run as scheduled tasks. I should note that mpv 0. Sub-goal of this project is to sync up title video length to the film and get out any non-aligned video frames. Previous mplayer versions on x86 were suffering from too much thread and CPU utilization and slowness. It seems that recent changes made. You're a savvy driver, and you know an app can help even the most skilled driver get around the city without resorting to auto-pilot.

You know which one. Now, it's time to go shopping. Version 1. At some point in the afternoon, he'll decide to scale a five-foot wall to. Advantages of. Packages DirectShow and other. NET-native Windows System components. History Development began in and was inspired by the IBM ResilienceX technology research program where its devs were members.

The project was started as a spin-off of support for ResilienceX's interactive data visualization project. Blueheart Messenger features an intuitive conversation view that allows you to easily minimize message threads or proceed to the next conversation and group. Free Antivirus Agent 2. These engines detect virus and other malicious software, such as Trojans and. Free file encryption app Qana File Encryptor is available for free to new users who register on the site.

To improve your experience with the software, go to the settings menu and set your preferences to start with a clean setting. Qana Folder Encryptor is a Java-based tool that allows you to create folders that are safe and inaccessible without special keys. Not only can you create complex and customized keys, but you can also generate any number of them.

Gadgets:- 1. File Compatibility- All file types large or small can be opened with this application. Easy-to-Use Interface- A very easy interface which allows users even do not have a knowledge of astrology. RTE packet cameras. The implementation is straightforward and requires just a little bit of coding. Define your properties size, bit depth, Getting to know FP device properties. These descriptions highlight a few fundamental properties of all frame grabbers and LPT.

Just run it, go to the Extras section and make the necessary adjustments. Remember that you can always configure the tool through the included configuration files or the settings stored in the INI file. After flashing the tool, you can get rid of its interface by deleting the files that you have downloaded from the Internet. Many artists around the globe are creating stylish graphics for it.

The case of colorful icons is no exception. There are many wallpapers, free icons and pre-built apps in the market. Here is a list of such wallpapers I prefer. Mentor Graphics Corporation of Santa Clara, California, has developed a family of native dataflow programming environments for data integration, visualization, and signal processing, including. If 'Close Folder' is on, will be sync to disk. Date copied : Date added :. Do you like hunting for lost photos and artwork, or are you just tired to staring at your screen for a long period of time?

Or maybe you just want a fast and fast way to restore your photos and artwork and then share them with your friends on different social networks? Facetune is the answer! This photo editing software lets you work with photos and images to get them perfect by transforming them.

Type About in the main window to activate a small help file. You can use all the features in the program as long as you're logged into the account you've installed the program on. Thus, I have tested it and it works, but it takes a little getting used to, as it is hard to find out which number has been in which list.

Furthermore, you might need to adjust the "Bitrate" and possibly the "Node Name" in Properties, as the settings there is defaults and you might want to adjust them. So you. Arabic Translation - Windows OS Canyou translate this language into your own free of charge and then send it to me.

My written and verbal skills have been in constant development for over 20 years. I'd like to get some feed back for my writing as I am at the same time on a personal mission to add value to the English speaking world through a defined process of continuous development. In short, it lacks flexibility. Are you looking for a way to record the actions you make?

Maybe you want to have a record of your browsing activity to be checked later, for instance. You can Both types are computed as a time zone offset from GMT. Membership is. Trivia: The instructions to the voicemail file asks "Who is this and if you are trying to contact me, where can I be reached? As opposed to, for instance, GPUs? Is it a longevity preference or some other reason? How to use the program: 1 Click the [ Instruction ] button at the bottom right corner of the screen.

Your quantum number is the place of the button in the middle. Here are some of the 'Text' samples of your principal quantum number when you click through the button. All user activity is also synchronized within the user's Acrobat documents.

Program Resources Every version of Acrobat Connect offers more ways to access, synchronize and share collaboration products and services. Breeze Meeting, a complete life-cycle solution for meeting content creation and management, will be delivered as a standalone product to. However, it's important to note that the filters only work on JPEG images. Experience simple, comfortable, fun and fast password generation. Generate and use your best passwords using Pafwert!

This new feature will autofill your new password when you use it, so your life will. A poor media selection can lead to problems when burning those discs. Have more details? File Synchronization service for Windows NT LAN is a compact application that runs as a service and allows you to have the same files and shares, and to synchronize folders and folders of shares on all the computers from the network.

If you need synchronous copy of files between computers on the LAN this simple service can be useful for you. It copies files to the remote computer s and synchronizes files and folders of remote computers. Synchronization Manager service. You will also be able to select a custom size if your Wallpaper Tools doesn't scale the wallpaper automatically and change the resolution if your wallpaper doesn't fit the custom size.

The Lunar Zodiac Pig is also a high-quality jpeg wallpaper so it should be easy for you to use. How do you get the Lunar Zodiac Pig graphics card in your computer? First, you need to download the wallpaper. Second, after that download this Lunar Zodiac Tiger Wallpaper. The AL. How to install Skype to E-mail Forwarder? Skype to E-mail Forwarder Full Crack is a tiny program that will do you wonders when you have your eyes on either chatting on Skype or receiving an e-mail with too many messages and you have missed an important chat or an e-mail that should be answered right away.

This tool also works in a similar way as other messaging forwarders. The highly efficient HTML creator allows you to perform any formatting without downloading the separate font, style, or image files. Edit your drawings using special HTML techniques: make eBooks, maintenance reports, marketing flyer, etc.

Reuse and edit ready-made. Best of all, it is free. Technical Specifications installation This beeware is available through a download-installation. There is no archive or some full version file to extract it from. After starting the setup-process the application will install on your computer.

The installation package includes the application itself, two required DLLs and some utility exe files. You do not have to explain where the application will be stored on your computer. The responsible installer knows all possible. Formerly Media Metrix Video Analysis.

We're back! Let's start off by taking a look back at how things went down last year. It was a great journey! That Singapore team of ours took out all of the opposition in the regional playoffs, proving to be one. Vodcatcher Helper binaries 32 bit, 64 bit are updated for Vodcatcher 1.

All of the Vodcatcher Helper binaries can also be executed on clients thanks to our One-Click Installer. A developer can make personal use of the Tool without any restriction. Licenses for commercial use are available. The Tool's original developer Tool's team is Curvbar and David. Despite its small and simple appearance, the app has various useful tools, and you will enjoy utilizing them. Follow the path that leads for the foot. Sustainable Consciousness See the sky smile out of existence.

Consciousness or awareness is essentially nothing other than the process of knowing what should be done to achieve a definite purpose. Since life and time are the basic elements that make up everything in the Cosmos, you will inevitably have to take into consideration the whole image. Download and installation Open the downloaded file and install the executable if you've downloaded it to the default installation directory. Alternatively, you can also choose to use the ISO file.

After installation, close the window. To do this, open the Control Panel, choose the System control panel option, or open the Regedit and. She works in a secret lab, eating brains and turning her undead minions on the living for brains. Can we talk about the poster of this game first? The game provides you with a group of players co-operate to complete the puzzles quickly and collect all the required elements.

The player character organizes the team by assigning the best companion for each puzzle. It works very well as it is compatible with the iPhone Photos and Photos Mobile, also the iPhone ringtones could be set up as well. There's no need, and it's very. This unit converter application is one of the many that has been provided by its creator, helping users with the conversion of time between meters, inches, decimeters or in any way they like.

All the other features listed above can be either downloaded for free at the software's official site. Do you know what Salesforce. A free GIS program that will help you to view your maps in a much more effective and user friendly way. Are you one of the many people around the world who doesn't have an internet connection?

The developers may improve the interface and enhance its quality if they deem it necessary. BitDefender will no longer update your installation if your user account is still active. If you need to login to the Internet again, you will need to create a new user account.

See details in the Microsoft Forefront Endpoint Protection tool reference page. The default option is to generate system generated logs, but there are other options you can choose from such as the ability to create. The program runs really smoothly, and very easy to use, all you have to do is enter a name for the desired event log. After that, you choose what type of log you want to create. All in all, an Easy-to-use application. It can generate several source.

If you work for a service or software company, then it is likely that you have users that require you to answer questions about computer usage. While in the past that meant traveling to your customers locations to address technical difficulties, nowadays software applications like UltraViewer allow you to connect to computers remotely and make this tasks less time-consuming. Allows you to establish secure connections UltraViewer is designed to establish secure connections.

The tool provides excellent security options, which include a shared secret code. To create an entry in Favorites, click the red button below and choose what you want from the list that drops down. Do remember to login using your Google account or other logins won't work as you'd expect.

If you can't see anything worth hanging on to on the list, you can make your own list, custom conditions, choose a launcher icon, configure hotkeys and send commands as a Gmail. In addition, there is a way to get customizable taskbars.

How to prevent this situation in its tracks? Are you looking for a beautiful Android app to help develop literacy skills among young children? Then, Stardroid is the app you need! This most intuitive and user-friendly reading exercise app has no moving parts. Steve Noel is the editor and founder of Technology Personalized. His areas of expertise are in Windows, Linux, hackers, and people. Noel has a passion for helping others, and covers topics where others are clueless.

Nox is a product that can help users avoid downloading any malicious software malware to their computer. The scan algorithm doesn't include any specific extensions for directory paths. The program is the creation of Empire Labs, a cybersecurity company specialized in developing anti-malware software.. Free Crystal Icons Freehold is guaranteed to be free of any copyright restrictions and you can use the icons in any way you want including for commercial use.

But be kind to the developers and point a nice link to their website when you use the icons for commercial purposes. How can I use the icons, right-click on the image and choose 'Set As Desktop Icons' All the icons are free for personal non-commercial use.

As a gift for the team at. The utility has extensive features, but it can read and parse plain text data formats which display the Excel spreadsheet in a easy to use format. The practice exam will help you identify your weaknesses and understand the concepts you need to improve upon. Our BH practice test questions prepare you for the real BH certification exam in the best possible way. With so many free text-editors available, people usually experience a bit of digital-civilization fatigue right after they get their new PC running.

Maybe they were wondering which app to choose amongst the bunch. You may think it is a title whose name basically. You can download it from the developer's website here. It converts multiple audio files at once. It is able to convert many different audio formats. Wave-MP3Converter is very light and efficient. You can then restore data from backup with just one click. BackupYou enables you to schedule backup jobs.

For example, every day, you can choose to backup all your most important files to one large archive that can be restored at any time. You can backup files and folders to multiple archive sizes, such as giga and tera. If you have a network account, you can backup files or folders from the network to an external server.

At the time of this. You can add a series of addons to this application so it best fits your needs and desires. But it has some disadvantages: 1. The second rendering is cosmetic rendering using the law of optics which makes an axis for virtual world : the center magnify and edge not magnified of desktop.

As you may see from the schema below, a virtual world blue should stay at the center of the desktop. Reader Interactions Comments Hi! It allows you to display and modify the contents of PCI configuration space. The advantage is that you are not restricted to a particular hardware device and can modify the contents of arbitrary PCI devices, not just for your own computer.

This command-line tool is designed to accelerate debugging. With Moxier Wallet, you can find an access key to accessing your different accounts on sites such as LinkedIn, Facebook, and many more. Why Moxier Wallet and not another secure folder application? Microsoft aiming for November 18 debut of new Surface tablet Microsoft plans on releasing its second generation Surface tablet on November 18, an insider at the Redmond-based company has confirmed, addressing some of the rumors surrounding the October 26 unveiling event.

A leaked marketing tactic previously revealed by Lifehacker revealed that Microsoft planned on amping up the hype for its announcement of the new Surface 2 ahead of October 26 event by asking stores to order up tons of the new 7.

Screensaver option provides a quiet and cool background view of your desktop e. Surf through 35 high-quality wallpapers set in peaceful depth including picture, color, landscape or 3D view. So it is a great choice for your desktop.

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