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Increased wealth, together with a greater concentration of that wealth or its products in particular loca. On the other hand, the same wealth, if well used, creates greater flexibility and should allow greater scope for measures to guard against, or to recover from, the effects of these events. In the absence of modern studies, information has been retrieved from primary historical sources, that is, chiefly chronicles of general or local history.

Reporting of natural events in these sources is erratic, although large-scale disasters, particularly earthquakes and to a significantly lesser extent floods, do command interest. Supplementing the Persia. A most valuable source of information on disasters is the Persian press, established around , for dramatic events of this nature always attract attention.

In all these sources, the coverage is patchy and incomplete, with the emphasis on the ephemeral, newsworthy event rather than on its consequence or long-term repercussions. Persian newspapers, although thoroughly exploited for data on earthquakes, have been little used for information on other hazardous events, because substantial collections are lacking in British libraries.

These archives are open at the time of writing up to , which has determined the cut-off point for this study. The interest and involvement of these officials in the area of their responsibility were such that they observed and reported not only the incidence of disasters but also some details of the aftermath period. The quality and quantity of such information nevertheless depends almost entirely on the personal interest of the individual concerned; many issues are left hanging in the air when more pressing preoccupations intervene.

Diplomatic records also supply the one element of quantitative information that can be used as a measure of the subjective accounts of disasters provided by other sources. Published meteorological data. Scattered information for other places is found in the files of correspondence, although they do not provide a homogeneous record.

Country-wide meteorological stations have only been established in Iran since the end of the Second World War. In our period of interest, however, the rural background is never far from view. Apart from the predominantly agrarian economy of Iran before and the mutual interdependence of consumer and producer, other factors emphasise the common relationship of urban and rural settle- ments with the natural environment.

In economic and administrative terms, each region was more or less self-contained in the absence of effective central government and of adequate communications. Data obtained from the various documentary sources used remain incomplete on the incidence and causes of extreme events, on their effects, and on the attitudes and responses of the communities that have suffered.

This general survey of the data currently available is presented in the hope that it will provide a ba. Those under consideration here are wind, rain and hail, floods and severe winters ; although to some extent influenced by climatic conditions, epidemics and famines are not considered to be primarily meteorological eve]qts.

Summary accounts of past disasters are presented in the Tables a. J UJ3apnos u! Oq at l jo ]J3j a Tt! J] A Jt? M stpuour I9uruns 9ap ]not 8nolap MO[q q.! M u8TT ]u3nb3Jj S9. M paMa! U] Ja8Jt? M 8uT E3p alt! Jo[Id at ] jo 8u[putnsJapun uv. Eui9] 9Init3u t ]! I sa]ouoJd sTqL.

Iaiu[M t sJt'q aq] u! Iadur3] 3ur3 ]xa ]o s]. M plo. Aiiensnun ui2 puT2 s3mitdurai Joururns q8! H Joss3joJd q. At dt2J8odo] Snou! E]unour 3t. UoP9[t2D St]]O. J8t2 put! Jad TAeut'd 3q] jo fouapu3] 8u! M stpoo jo uo! M 3t ] o] uoTss! EuSTsar 9ap t ] M 9. E put! Joj 9do. S 9q] ]TurT tp! UE Sum. I9u38 s! J ]uoJlnJ jo u3ur -ss3sse 13It33p e o] a]nq!

T8o oJoa]au jo uo! Aold sp. These high winds increase the danger of a breach in the earthworks in the Hirmand delta when the water is high, and have a dessicating effect when levels are low. Sand and dust-storms may reach great intensity and cause inconvenience as well as damage to crops, as in February when sandstorms most after- noons and frost on the last three evenings of the month did great damage to the fruit trees in Kirman province.

In Sistan particularly, the combination of wind and sand has overwhelmed whole villages and threatens not only agriculture but even the existence of the towns. Locality Effects H. Khuzistan ds Strong jg. Khurramshahr Violent dust-storm lasted several days, reducing visibility to under 10 paces Shdshtari, p.

Tehran ;eat:srebim'dd,a:ii:;ts'::didebbydcearrsrt,:I:a;w:yuc Ed :tsftoart:? Persian Gulf Violent winds reported in Bushire; damage to ships and houses at Lingeh Ies, with heavy rain; minor damage done to consula. Tdii jo suoTss3Idx3 ]! Aiur 8u! M ]st? M 9q] uo urEul3ouoJu. Mopq 08s spoon Jo u! Sqo A[qt3qojd aJt!

H] ]3tpTz3M 3q] ]noqt3! In] n.! ItzA I. A3uT s! A13A 3Ii2 fuouaur put. At:M jo su! Jds 9t. X3 3q o P3Jt! Jqu o] 3ulE 3q 3. Jat ]t3aM 3t :A[]u3u! Jqt' uT TnsuoD t S! STt ] u. Aold tnt! Id Sap I. E At'ur slql 9! I s t2ur! M Aas Aq p8sod plt! MOJt ] lou p[no. A8t ] : 3]eul! Sal 8uo ut! I9dx3 sun suo! JE3 8u! Ie]s p3SuoioJd Jo plo. A euo! M 3uros u! E] at. I uT sl3]u! So olpAq 3sou ,. SaJ"Jnl]S u. The hazard posed by heavy snowfalls or late frosts are relatively minor, although the latter may cause substantial damage to agriculture.

Late snow dzimaged crops in Kirman in April though the harvest was later good a. Similar damage to fruit and almonds is reported from Kirman in the spring of ,,, and In March, frost and snow darnaged fruit trees and the opium crop. Appendix A. In December , heavy snowfalls in Shiraz brought down power and telegraph cables and several people were killed. The snow nevertheless provided an adequate water supply stored in the mountains for the spring and was therefore beneficial, especia.

Ily in view of the previous drought. The cold weather did, however, create a crisis in the charcoal situation. Damage to houses could be averted by the well-tried method described by Clavijo in of shovelling snow off the flat roofs into the streets. Fryer noticed that to combat this, the better houses had secure "Brick Bottoms".

Such damage is mentioned in the a. Isolated deaths from the collapse of buildings, intense cold or starvation are also reported. The latter two cases generally reflect the fact that shortages of fuel or food already existed, or that inadequate relief was provided. A severe winter following a drought, with its resultant shortages of stocks and inflation of prices, is a particularly crippling combina. Deaths from starvation in Sistan probably ran into thousands and can only indirectly be blamed on the winter weather.

The same winter saw the "famine' ' experienced by the Shahsivan tribe in Mughan, caused by loss of livestock and lack of stores of grain. Fifty thousand tribesmen were thought to be affected, though no deaths from starvation were reported. The plight of the Shahsivan caused concern in Tehran, because the tribe was regarded as the most loyal to the government and provided valuable assistance in defending the northern frontier.

Doubtless prompted by these considerations, energetic relief measures were organized. Grain was tra. Tractors were to be made available to facilitate adequate ploughing for the next year's crop and arrangements were made for moving the surviving livestock to new winter quarters in Khuzistan fctr the season though this may not in the end have been necessary.

It seems that after these initial dispositions matters were allowed to rest a little. The tractors did ultimately arrive in time for ploughing, and seed was distributed by the army; instructions were also given to the peasants, but by this time only three weeks were left to sow a proposed 6, hectares before the first frosts. However, the cultivation programme in Mughan was later considered to have been a success and plans were made for similar programmes in the Khuy region and around Miyandau-ab in They should be seen in part at least as due to the fact that foreign advisers were present in Iran at this time ln connection with the formulation of the First Seven Year Plan, which was approved by the Majlis in ;27 hence the drive towa.

This official flirtation with progressive development schemes probably found some echo in Sistan, where the situation was desperate. A Birjand merchant and landowner named Sepehri made an attempt to revive old industries and started building improved houses in traditional designs; such enlightened efforts led in some cases to a striking improvement in living conditions. It was later noted, however, that the new water projects in Sistan were unlikely to provide permanent subsistence for the local workforce and possibilities were discussed for sending workers to Khuzistan.

M ulolj Ap]p]nd3s spOOu ssn. M A3s Joj sa]t! T2 tzuo! EJ ht? Jp Mous do3p asm?. M aJat ] put s3p! J3d s! Eiap t 8not ] t! Inp poT! A]T IqoN. AaAIns I9pun po! Oap ss3ssE o] 9[q! TT3ads Aue ]not ]! M ii3Jouo8 u! Il uT uaaq 3At'q s!

AEat p3JaHns os[E ut? J ula]st! H ulolj spt2o] 3qu ie puT! M 3ur3I]x3 jo ]. I sno! I Ap]t2! J3p 3q o] 3. S :Ap"s ]uas3Id 3tp jo uJa. I s]nd s! So oloo]9ur jo ] nsou 9t ] p3IapTsuo3 3q A ].! E Io I9apT!

M Aas Aq lo iqsnoJp Aq pel! EJ]snJl pup aspl]no o] ]tl3ulasnur e.! Jnp uEJ u! Iq jo s Jod9J Put! J]no Jo s u! A 3qi u. M 3Iat i. M uopnq! J sip pug sJ3Ht? Jtp uroq paA[3. I slo]. Source : S77! Figures in brackets indicate the difltrence from the monthly means over the period shown. The gncdors::nnsa:I;L]:es:u:urn Not all rainfall leads to flooding, of course, either in river beds or across open ground. Much rainfall is, however, destructive in other ways, which should be noted before we examine the impact of flood disasters.

It is a sad irony that in a land so desperately short of water, so much goes to waste as well as causing harm. In these circumstances, delicate gaC5 which tap the underground water table at different depths below the surface as well as small dams b"7td5 permit the practice of cultivation in many environments that even under the best conditions would be classified as marginal.

H] 3St'urT? M Oap 8u! Ia]i39IS ]et ] sT s! In]t2u v. A ie]u3p! Til snonu! Ids 9t ] uT :sno! EI p3]u3pa. Locality Effects june Sabzavar Three days continuous rain did untold damage in the region round Baihaq H. Ibn Funduq, p. Azarbaijan Heavy rains cause damage in Marand, Maragheh and Miyandau-ab jr6", no.

Zabul Heavy rains da. Shiraz Heavy rainfall does considera. Kirman Several houses collapse, 2 people killed FO. Khurasan Feb. Turbat-i ::thodfatTeaEe? Shiraz Great damage done by rain; collapse of walls and arches; 5 people killed and 2 injured JO. Mashhad Houses collapse under continuous ra. There is hardly a roof intact in the whole village.

Brayley-Hodgetts, in Azarbaijan in , observed that. The villagers are of a wretchedness beyond description. People live in mud huts, which have no value, and are frequently destroyed by a shower, only to be reconstructed the next day. The people have no furniture, no belongings, no property, no industries, no anything. H 3t ]-t! ME id3MS so8p! Jo83 eJ peolq OML. J8e jo uo! IIoi Aq p3ploj 3q pino. Jq p3sdt3 o.

TurouoJ3 uT 3]our 3 1]! Jq jo 8sdi3 io3 3t ] u3A9 pug spEol jo uo! JtHo ]uoJJn. Z 9q] u! E uE uloJj p3u! Aold o] p83u ou S! JUT 3S3u. J3]EM 3Li] jo ssoi 3q] p3pnpuT 3q ]snur s3sso tpns u. SptzoJ jo suo! AEur as3t. SPoou ust'u 8u!

Pu3ddv uT P3Pnpu! H] Suno]s! PUTZ S 13ul! UE uodn s! JAn3d JC[. SuuE' S. SJad t'jo SPJ! M stur[o t? Io an t? I9]eu e u! Locality Effects Sistan Great hailstones killed many birds around Zirreh and broke their wings; H. Inu[s to ostrich eggs killed rna.

Violent hail destroys all houses in the villages of Kurit and Fa. A second category comprises floods that affect a large urban centre, concentrating damage in a restricted area on personal property, houses, shops, municipal buildings and water supply systems, often with the loss of several lives. Outlying villages and cultivation may also suffer along with communications around the town, but this is not given the same prominence.

This type of flood is often associated with a river bed that is dry most of the year, the proximity of the seasonal stream being one of the attractions of the site as a settlement area. Many of the floods that destroy towns or villages are essentially of the flash flood va. Aie u.! M 9q] ]IaA! S UT3]S! S t ]nos all uo unt3P E ]. S p3q JOA! Jo 8u!

M sJ9! M uno]s 13uuns pal. A Tp9ads q.! J aqu u! M Poou ]13q] S]u! J3ds 3JON fs. Ipsurfo ]t! Aqli39u urep bnfii2s Ia! Jds u! SaHAp Su! Edal Ioj aplse 18S SeM ut:]s! Put Z! G 3H] uo Surt! Aa jo ]unoure I! AOJd i! AloisTq u! J 8m]nj Jo ]u3un. SuTss3ssE u! Jadx3 ii2! H 8i os. Pooujo aTol pup ]. M p3]t! Idlns Iou s! S3J au] u! Iodold 38It! M tlo! Jo auo e uTt'J Aq J3t ]! These resulted in orders to collect 50 workmen, which in turn resulted in the arriva. This lack of concern is the more striking because of the great damage and loss of life caused by flooding only two years earlier.

Neglect of a flood dyke built by Karim Khan-i Zand d. Official indifference a. New small-holders were unable to make the necessary arrangements for irriga. In addition to such local and national features of the situation, the international dispute with Afghanistan over the share and administration of the Hirmand wa. In lykes' Nasir al-Din Shah sanctioned the replacement of the old ruined flood barrier at Qazvin with a zistan new and stronger one, the bill to be footed by the government.

After the Yazd flood of , local merchants subscribed to the lng to construction ofa protective dam, which was completed in In Tabriz, most notably, the dyke msin constructed in was not given proper annual repairs and it burst again in , shortly after being at given "a meretricious aspect of having been shored up with brick and stone. One of the masons in the employed is alleged to have declared that there were two thin layers of badly cemented brick and lction stone, and the space between being filled with earth and a little sand" FO.

During this reconstruction, a false flood alarm revealed that the people appea. Rebuilding of houses on their former hazardous sites in Shiraz in and Mashhad in , to mention but two examples, was not great ve the sufficiently discouraged and such elementary ways of decreasing vulnerability were not adopted. The water continuing use of the riverbed in Birjand as a major thoroughfare for the bazaar seems also to be nse of putting unnecessarily great strain on the compassion of the Merciful.

In Birjand, at least, floods are ing to not a frequent occurrence, but Shiraz has a long history of flooding and the buildings there seem Jds of particularly unable to resist the action of the weather cf. Table IV , as was noted by]. Tavernier in lre the March The record of Jod of historic disasters contains few signs that relief was either contemplated or carried out.

Inos E. Iot ]ne it! N pup ui3ulJ! Tod s. H ]e J8]St! STP Joft! T]8T] p3idd! H all 9. I Aouour 3t ] jo t. Ist3 putz uo! Oru3 saT]np T:pos pup sno! ATS ]tzt ] ]. Iood st:M 3suods9J 3t ] s3. J]s u! Tqnd A apTMjo 3st'3 Oap u!

I jo spot ]aur ]u3tlmlaAoo. AaAlns lapun po! Iad 3ui u! Ai3 9. Aig]tmb3pi3 Moq uo pup p3]nq! JT23A ]t? Joj Pa eJo t! Aauour ]t'qu Pa8ut? H Pup jo SPo0U zt3! AOJd ss3 ]quop A]! Aap t3aM A [tmp! PU og. SJ9 a]Ins Tt! A jo sa qt3. JA] ]su! Houses already demolished were esof also disposed of, without compensation. In these circumstances, it is not btful surprising that the flood victims were low on the list of financial obligations and priorities.

The izens Governor-General was replaced in August and there is no indication that compensation was ever Some received. The Shah is hiraz said to have telegraphed Kazimi ordering that landowners should be forced to repair their ga7i6f5, even early though they might have to sell their belongings to meet the required expenditure. Loans from the [dbe National Bank were refused and landowners had to borrow at high interest rates from local Parsi lgof traders, to whom many of them were already in debt.

By only about , acres as opposed to , formerly were under cultivation, and damage to many ga7z6C5 was recognized to be permanent. There exist certain problems of definition and identification. Meteorological rties, drought, hydrological drought and a. Given hole the fact of the aridity of the climate, drought, in terms of absence of rainfall, is the normal condition food for most of the country over much of the year.

Water balance surplus from rainfall and river discharge and is everywhere a seasona. I phenomenon, with a water deficit occurring throughout the country during glow, the summer. The variability and irregularity of the rainfall pattern in nthe Iran has already been noted, and the absence of rain for a week or two in the early winter or the spring rould is a fairly common occurrence, causing anxiety because of the effect these delays have on ploughing ever' and sowing the crops and later on their maturing.

Rainfall at the wrong time of year or lack of rain nor during a critical period which may be quite brief can have a serious effect on harvest yields without a genuine hydrological drought having occurred. During the first half of the present century, numerous instances are reported of lack of rain in winter or spring, with damage to crops and rises in the cost of foodstuffs.

Most often, no concrete ill effects result and no more is heard once the harvest is gathered in or if rain fa. Il at last materializes. In more severe cases, absence of rain over prolonged periods becomes disastrous by reason of the cumulative effects of a series of dry days, each of which on its own is not exceptional.

Development of a disastrous drought is a long process, with a slow onset. Severe drought may also be geographically restricted to a discrete area and may not comma. Furthermore, the most usual effect of a poor harvest caused by drought, is food shortage or famine, so that what is reported may be the famine rather than its initial climatic "trigger". Jd put! AP8 t' 13 q]! Jos t3 u3A! S :A]! T]T od pup A]! Jad t ]oq u. Jt3M p IOM puo. Jnp poJm.

M-AJ]unoJ sno! Id pool u! JnG Jap au] st! TJd u! Suo oJd u! J33iTOJd put' uo! I lo Mous jo 3. Jodxa Su! AT]Tm or 8u! Mau p Joj p33s lo poojjo urloj 9q] u! Egjt3 auo Aut! AOJd 3uo o] pal.! Put3 3H] [ t' jo uo! TTn] ]u3A3Id 13q]! Jo uo! T8oTOJoa]9ur ]o ]x3]uo. Tod lo t? Jds 3t ] pup pzt! EJ oN zL. J3 m 3tl] Aq pap! J"3d o4.

Apo3u 9u] 8uoure ]u9uruJaAoS atp Aq p3inq! Sn8 Put! Ip puEun! A n]u3. TP3ds S! While drought is clearly an ever-present hazard in Iran, famine is still a man-made disaster. V In conclusion, the risk of loss from the meteorological haLzards discussed above is determined partly by the frequency and scale of the physical forces involved and partly by the nature of man's relationship with the environment and his perception of its dangers.

Survey of historical records has been able to throw some light on both these parameters, and such insights may further our under- standing of more recent events. Information on weather conditions before is certainly incomplete, and even if it were fuller, might refer to climate regimes different from those prevailing today and thus not be entirely relevant. Past experience of extreme conditions may nevertheless focus attention on particular areas of vulnerability and give a measure of the possible upper bound of predicted hazardous events.

It is only after that it is possible to obtain any quantitative measure of the details reported, and although scanty, this greatly assists discrimination of "extreme" from "normal" events. Descriptive da. At the same time, the first half of the present century was a period of transition and saw the initiation of many challenges to traditional Persian society that have since become more permanent; its experiences are sufficiently within our own horizons to be relevant and comprehensible.

The period thus offers a useful sample of data with which we can look both back- wards and forwards. Winter is the critical season, when extremely cold temperatures and lack, or excess, of snow and rain all have potentially damaging effects on human life, property and social organization. Flash floods, which may occur at all seasons but especially in the spring and early summer, are perhaps the most desunctive of all meteorological hazards, made particularly dangerous by the fact that they are unpredictable and usually occur entirely without warning.

The data assembled on the physical para- meters of past disasters are not yet sufficiently comprehensive to permit any reliable calculation of return periods for extreme events on a statistical basis. No long-term trends or short-term patterns are immediately apparent, and the events reported appear to be random occurrences. They remain, nevertheless, frequent. Widespread and highly destructive rain and flooding, of the type reported in , have subsequently occurred on many occasions at intervals of between 5 and 15 years, as in ?

On a more genera. I level, we have seen how man's relationship with the natural environmem has influenced his vulnerability. The mountainous topography of Iran and the great fluctuations in temperature and variability in precipitation experienced make the environment a harsh one, in which agriculture and urban settlement can be established in many regions only with the help of elaborate human intervention in redistributing available water supplies.

Damage from floods is intensified by the barren nature of the terrain and by the fact that human settlements are generally located on the alluvial fans or piedmom alluvial plains that fringe the mountain ranges. The orientation of many Persian towns and villages to conform with the slope of the land and so provide easy access for water supplies and irrigation canals must also assist the passage of flood waters once the walls or moats are breached. There is no evidence at present that meteorological disasters have had any significant impact in modifying this long-term situation.

In rural areas, abandonment ofvillagcs often followed a disaster thzi[ had a permanently damaging effect on the water supply for agriculture and domestic use. I 99s. Joj pot ]9ur e t s! Lpq 4! Tap S]dur3]]t' 3u! Eur Jo ]. U sl3]st3s! J u u3AH. Aua eun]t3u 9t ] jo A uo lou ssausnoT.!

Idi3] 3sot M ]uour -uoJTAu9 ue u! Ttni2j jo anb! ST ]ut3St! Jjo ]gau3q all tp! Tt2J" ]sour u. T2ur 3t ] ]t:ap ]3T3j 3t ] Aq p3uO! I9d 9t. Spual] uopt'Tndod uo ] t! I jo s]. PtHo ]sJT 3qu aJoj3q t3]t? Io 3]! M9u t3 uo ]u3ul3 ]ias 3St:Ino3u3 put3 ast3! I with 7 N. Ambraseys and C. Melville, A hij! London, , I, p. Browne, held by the the situation in Mughan, See FO. Coverage of events repr.

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